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How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.

This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease.

This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 4th quarter of 2020, between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020.

Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 December 2020 and 1 of October 2020 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports global confirmed cases for that dates.

In case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.

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