Question
When will a G-20 country field fully-autonomous, no human-in-the-loop lethal military AI weapon systems?
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction
May 2031
(26 Apr 2029 - Jul 2037)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 26 Apr 2029 | — |
| median | May 2031 | — |
| upper 75% | Jul 2037 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2050 | 7.4% | — |
Authors:
Opened:May 19, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2050
Authors:
Opened:May 19, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2050