forecasting intelligent wisdom assembling quantitative futures forecasting intelligent contingencies calculating probable wisdom composing calibrated forecasts mapping the future computing accurate wisdom forecasting definitive predictions formulating definitive insights aggregating quantitative understanding delivering contingent wisdom generating precise predictions assembling quantitative wisdom delivering predictive forecasts


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.

This question asks in which month cases of COVID-19 will peak in 2020?

Estimating the peak date will help a lot in modeling the outbreak accurately. Especially the number of infections and deaths.

Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2020 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2021. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.

The new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January (9,8k).

If the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.