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Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.
This question asks in which month cases of COVID-19 will peak in 2020?
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2020 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2021. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.
The new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January (9,8k).
If the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.
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