computing predictive insights delivering definitive contingencies forecasting probable insights aggregating probable futures modeling critical contingencies aggregating precise understanding formulating definitive wisdom crowdsourcing quantitative predictions computing definitive contingencies forecasting calibrated futures mapping the future crowdsourcing intelligent forecasts aggregating precise insights mapping predictive understanding delivering critical insights exploring definitive contingencies generating precise insights crowdsourcing probable futures assembling precise estimations mapping definitive contingencies generating predictive futures crowdsourcing probable insights mapping accurate estimations mapping probable futures crowdsourcing contingent predictions aggregating probable wisdom computing precise forecasts mapping critical estimations


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Every 4 years, the United States elects a new president. These elections are traditionally held on the first Tuesday after November 1st. Typically, somewhere roughly between 50% and 60% of the voting population turns out to cast a ballot.

An election is scheduled to be held on the 3rd of November. However, the COVID-19 outbreak has reached the United States. This could potentially cause havoc, making many people sick or fearful to come to public polling places, and potentially incapacitating the personnel necessary to run elections. As such, we ask:

Will at least 33% of the US voting-age population cast a ballot for President in an election held on the 3rd of November 2020?


  • Technically the election is for members of the Electoral College, not the President.
  • The "3rd of November 2020" refers to the period of time when it is the 3rd of November 2020 in any state of the United States.
  • This total includes people who voted by mail or people who voted early in person, as long as the majority of in-person voting is held on the 3rd of November.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.