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Will Tesla offer a self-driving capability on both highways and side streets by the end of 2020, with driver supervision required?

Note that Metaculus already has a separate question about whether Tesla will achieve full level-4/5 self-driving without supervision, but this question is specifically about achieving a reasonably feature-complete version of their supervision-based self-driving approach.

According to the Tesla website, they will support the remaining full self-driving options by the end of 2020, including support for stop lights and automatic driving on city streets. Tesla already offers self-driving on highways with driver supervision.

The current Metaculus estimate about unsupervised self-driving predicts a relatively low probability of success in 2020 (13%), but it would still be a major milestone if a supervised version were made available in this time-frame, hence this question.

By the end of 2020 will Tesla release a system capable of full self-driving across both highways and side streets, at least with driver supervision required?

This question will resolve positive if Tesla rolls out a system meeting the two remaining self-driving bullets listed on its website (linked above) by the end of 2020 as promised, allowing self-driving to extend to side-streets (in addition to highways). The feature descriptions from the Tesla site are

  1. Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs,
  2. Automatic driving on city streets.

The release should at least be at the US county level (or at a level that moderators decide is equivalent to that of a US county). It does not need to handle all road/weather conditions and intervention may be required in some circumstances. If no supervision is required, then this question will also resolve positive.


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.