Question

Will Tesla offer a self-driving capability on both highways and side streets by the end of 2020, with driver supervision required?

Resolved:Ambiguous

60 comments60

Total Forecasters96

Community Prediction

30%

(24% - 38%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

alphagrue

Opened:

Mar 16, 2020

Closes:

Jun 1, 2020

Resolves:

Jan 16, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 17, 2020

Technology

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2020 Leaderboard

Tesla shows off its first fully autonomous delivery to convince us its self-driving cars work well

•Jun 29, 2025

Tesla's first fully autonomous car drove itself to its new Texas owner, doing 72 mph on the highway, an engineer says

•Jun 29, 2025

Tesla says it delivered its first car autonomously from factory to customer

Verge•Jun 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

90%

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

60%

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Authors:

alphagrue

Opened:

Mar 16, 2020

Closes:

Jun 1, 2020

Resolves:

Jan 16, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 17, 2020

Technology

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2020 Leaderboard

Tesla shows off its first fully autonomous delivery to convince us its self-driving cars work well

•Jun 29, 2025

Tesla's first fully autonomous car drove itself to its new Texas owner, doing 72 mph on the highway, an engineer says

•Jun 29, 2025

Tesla says it delivered its first car autonomously from factory to customer

Verge•Jun 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

90%

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

60%