# What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?

###### Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing global outbreak of coronavirus disease. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, first identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China. As of 7 March 2020, more than 102,000 cases have been confirmed, of which 7,100 were classified as serious. 96 countries and territories have been affected, with major outbreaks in central China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran.

This question asks what will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?

The resolution will be based on the following equation that assumes exponential growth:

This question will follow as much as possible the resolution criteria described in the question about the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases. In short, this question will resolve at the end of March 2021 and will use the best available data for the whole world as made available by WHO.

The $t_1$ will be the 20th of January, because the first WHO situation report is for that day and it estimates 282 cases. The $t_2$ will be the last day of the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases. The time unit of $t_1$ and $t_2$ will be days.

The $x$ will be the total cumulative number of cases globally at the end of the month with the biggest increase. In other words, the number will be counted from the beginning of the outbreak and not during that single month.

For example, assume that February will be the month with the biggest growth then $x = 85403$, $t_2$ will be the 29th February and $t_2 - t_1 = 40$.

This may differ from the official estimates because COVID-19 cases did not follow the exponential growth in February.

This question will resolve ambiguous if the question "Which month of 2020 will see the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases?" will resolve ambiguous.

You may also want to take a look at: How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?

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