Question

Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?

Resolved:Yes

20 comments20

Total Forecasters9

Community Prediction

60%

(55% - 62%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

0.4

Community Baseline Score

53.7

Authors:

BenWilson

Opened:

May 24, 2025

Closes:

May 26, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 26, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025

Trump's tariffs keep coming. Stock markets don't seem to care.

NBC•Aug 13, 2025

Trump extends China tariff deadline for the second time. What does it mean?

Al Jazeera•Aug 12, 2025

Will Trump Extend Truce or Let Rates Spike?

•Aug 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?

Will the US government order the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ to be closed before January 20, 2029?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

73%

Authors:

BenWilson

Opened:

May 24, 2025

Closes:

May 26, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 26, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025

Trump's tariffs keep coming. Stock markets don't seem to care.

NBC•Aug 13, 2025

Trump extends China tariff deadline for the second time. What does it mean?

Al Jazeera•Aug 12, 2025

Will Trump Extend Truce or Let Rates Spike?

•Aug 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?

Will the US government order the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ to be closed before January 20, 2029?

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

73%