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When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?

Extraterrestrial life is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth and which did not originate on Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.

Since the mid-20th century, active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life. This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals.

This question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?

This question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars does not count.

To qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

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