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110 forecasters

Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?

35%chance
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Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Jun 1, 2025
Closes:Nov 2, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Nov 3, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 5, 2025
POTUS Predictions
Midterm Phase
Law
Politics
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How the Roberts Court became the Trump Court
CNN•Sep 24, 2025
The Conversation logo
Facing a shutdown, budget negotiations are much harder because Congress has given Trump power to cut spending through ‘rescission’
The Conversation•Sep 24, 2025
Raw Story logo
'Dismantling every guardrail': Expert warns Supreme Court poised to lift Trump constraint
Raw Story•Sep 23, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

2.5% chance
135

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

52% chance
118

Will the size of the US Supreme Court increase before 2029?

5% chance
155
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