computing definitive forecasts modeling calibrated forecasts computing probable forecasts predicting contingent futures composing contingent contingencies mapping the future exploring probable estimations assembling probable forecasts mapping accurate futures modeling probable wisdom exploring quantitative insights formulating definitive contingencies predicting calibrated contingencies generating predictive forecasts

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?

To advance laser physics, European scientists are constructing the Extreme Light Infrastructure (ELI) project, to eventually include four sites and some of the most powerful lasers in the world. Three of the facilities are currently under construction in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania, while the fourth site is yet to be determined.

Each facility is a "pillar" of the ELI. The Czech facility, called ELI-Beamlines, will develop short-pulse radiation sources. ELI-ALPS (Attosecond Light Pulse Source), in Hungary, will feature lasers with short pulses and high repetition rate over a broad range of frequencies. The Romanian facility will be called ELI-NP (nuclear physics) and will use the most powerful laser in the world to explore basic nuclear physics and develop applications such as destruction of nuclear waste or cancer radiotherapy. All three sites are slated to be operational by 2018.

Construction of ambitious physics facilities can be fraught with difficulties and delays, however. CERN's Large Hadron Collider, for example, was initially expected to be completed in 2005, but operations did not commence until 2009. The National Ignition Facility in California was originally estimated to be completed in 2002, but also experienced delays until dedication in 2009.

Will the first three pillars of ELI be completed as scheduled in 2018?

For this question to resolve as positive, an ELI press release or report from a credible news outlet must report that the last of the three pillars is complete and operational (taking at least test data using essentially the full system) on or before December 31, 2018.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.