Question
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
Total Forecasters35
Community Prediction
29 Dec 2027
(07 May 2027 - 07 Sep 2028)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 07 May 2027 | — |
| median | 29 Dec 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 07 Sep 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >31 Dec 2029 | 9.5% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jun 11, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 15, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Jun 11, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 15, 2025