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3k forecasters

254

3k forecasters

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

96%chance

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11 comments172 forecasters

AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?

2 comments118 forecasters

AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

653 comments1.9k forecasters

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

Current estimate

101 comments468 forecasters

ASI Transition Beneficial for Humanity

7 comments21 forecasters

Will an AGI be trained on cheap hardware before 2040?

21 comments110 forecasters

US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?

14 comments62 forecasters

AI resolving questions on Metaculus

9 comments11 forecasters

When AI to exceed 130 IQ

Current estimate