Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

The novel coronavirus outbreak has infected, as of March 2020, most countries on Earth. As the crisis worsens, government officials in several countries have been affected, including government officials in China, members of parliament in Iran and Italy, and potentially the Brazilian President and Canadian Prime Minister.

The US Congress, which is comprised of the House of Representatives (435 members, excluding 6 non-voting delegates) and the Senate (100 members), has not yet reported any confirmed infections. However, the body remains at risk, given both the travel and face-to-face interactions required by its work and by the relatively high average age of its members. The average House member is 58 years old; the average Senator is 62 years old. Roughly 36 Representatives are 75 or older; thirteen Senators are also 75 or older.

The 50 governors, who are similarly at risk, are slightly older than members of Congress on average, with an average age just over 63 years. One governor is 75 years old.

The nine US Supreme Court justices have an average age slightly over 67, with two members over 75 years old.

This question asks how many of the 535 voting members of the US Congress plus 50 governors plus nine Supreme Court justices will die from COVID-19 before Jan 1, 2021. Resolution will be from reporting by credible sources in the mainstream press inside and outside the US.

Deaths from causes other than COVID-19 infection do not count for purposes of this question.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.