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How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
The novel coronavirus outbreak has infected, as of March 2020, most countries on Earth. As the crisis worsens, government officials in several countries have been affected, including government officials in China, members of parliament in Iran and Italy, and potentially the Brazilian President and Canadian Prime Minister.
The US Congress, which is comprised of the House of Representatives (435 members, excluding 6 non-voting delegates) and the Senate (100 members), has not yet reported any confirmed infections. However, the body remains at risk, given both the travel and face-to-face interactions required by its work and by the relatively high average age of its members. The average House member is 58 years old; the average Senator is 62 years old. Roughly 36 Representatives are 75 or older; thirteen Senators are also 75 or older.
The 50 governors, who are similarly at risk, are slightly older than members of Congress on average, with an average age just over 63 years. One governor is 75 years old.
The nine US Supreme Court justices have an average age slightly over 67, with two members over 75 years old.
This question asks how many of the 535 voting members of the US Congress plus 50 governors plus nine Supreme Court justices will die from COVID-19 before Jan 1, 2021. Resolution will be from reporting by credible sources in the mainstream press inside and outside the US.
Deaths from causes other than COVID-19 infection do not count for purposes of this question.
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