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60
136
forecasters
28
60 comments
136 forecasters
Politics
2 more...
How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?
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2 comments
94 forecasters
(Attempted) murder of ≥2 US judges or legislators in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
Yes
2025-2026
result:
Yes
2027-2028
75%
0 comments
15 forecasters
# of confirmed Article III judges in 2027-2028?
Democratic Congress
6.24
Republican Congress
11.5
Split Congress
10.2
19 comments
781 forecasters
SCOTUS composition change in 2026?
20%
chance
16 comments
717 forecasters
# of top US officials out in 2026?
Current estimate
4.54 Officials
0 comments
22 forecasters
Will there be an unfilled Supreme Court vacancy on Jan 20, 2029?
Democratic Congress
20%
Republican Congress
7%
Split Congress
13%
23 comments
128 forecasters
10k+ US Conflict Deaths in 1 year by 2030
7.5%
chance
8 comments
25 forecasters
Trump SCOTUS Justices by January 21, 2029
3
16.3%
4
49%
5
27.6%
6
6.1%
7 or more
1%
18 comments
60 forecasters
US Military Deaths over 3k by 2031
17.6%
chance