Question

Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?

Resolved:Yes

60 comments60

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction

50%

(34% - 81%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.3

Community Peer Score

-0.0

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 13, 2025

Closes:

Aug 1, 2025

Resolves:

Aug 3, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2025

A militarily degraded Iran may turn to asymmetrical warfare – raising risk of proxy and cyber attacks

The Conversation•Jun 20, 2025

Photos this week: June 12-19, 2025

CNN•Jun 20, 2025

Expert Panel on Israel’s War Against Iran Interrupted by Iranian Missile Attack

Townhall•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

57%

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

90%

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 13, 2025

Closes:

Aug 1, 2025

Resolves:

Aug 3, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2025

A militarily degraded Iran may turn to asymmetrical warfare – raising risk of proxy and cyber attacks

The Conversation•Jun 20, 2025

Photos this week: June 12-19, 2025

CNN•Jun 20, 2025

Expert Panel on Israel’s War Against Iran Interrupted by Iranian Missile Attack

Townhall•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

57%

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

90%