60
27 forecasters
Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?
ResolvedYes
Israel attacked Iran's capital
Increases Likelihood
Iranian missiles penetrate Israeli Iron Dome
Increases Likelihood
High Iranian motivation to retaliate
Increases Likelihood
Death of Iran's Guard commander
Increases Likelihood
Potential for Iranian retaliation
Increases Likelihood
Significant hit on Tel Aviv's Kirya Compound
Increases Likelihood
Hezbollah attacks potentially linked to Iran
Increases Likelihood
Effective Israeli missile defense
Decreases Likelihood