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When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?

Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year, with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, social media use is booming in the developing world. Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin.

The question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?

For the purposes of this question, "currently undiscovered" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion.

For this question, a "social media" is defined as one that appears on this statista list. If it is not available at resolution time, then either this wikipedia article may be consulted or a suitable replacement may be chosen by Metaculus.


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