Question

Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?

Resolved:No

1 comment1

Total Forecasters101

Community Prediction

(0.5% - 1.2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

7.1

Community Baseline Score

93.0

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 14, 2025

Closes:

Aug 15, 2025

Resolves:

Sep 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 18, 2025

Metaculus Cup

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

Iran Delivers Nuclear Deal Threat

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

IAEA chief gets special police protection over threats as deadline approaches over Iran sanctions

Independent•Aug 28, 2025

IAEA chief says Iran's cooperation with inspectors is a 'work in progress' as sanctions loom

NBC•Aug 28, 2025

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