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When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of an outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown cause” detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China – the seventh-largest city in China with 11 million residents.

The John Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) visualises and tracks the reported cases on a daily timescale.

The case data visualized is collected from various sources, including WHO, U.S. CDC, ECDC, China CDC (CCDC), NHC and DXY. DXY is a Chinese website that aggregates NHC and local CCDC situation reports in near real-time, providing more current regional case estimates than the national level reporting organizations are capable of, and is thus used for all the mainland China cases reported in our dashboard (confirmed, suspected, recovered, deaths).

Based on Johns Hopkins monitoring dashboard, as of March 16th 2020 (08:10 UTC), 169,387 cases have been confirmed worldwide.

When (UTC) will John Hopkins' CSSE first record a total confirmed case count > 999,999?

If the John Hopkins tracker goes offline or is otherwise unavailable, the following other trackers that may be considered for question resolution:

Caveats

There are a few points that bear mention:

  • Temporary/unreliable changes shall not be considered for resolving the question. E.g if JH's tracker exceeds 1 million on May 20th, but on May 21st it reports a figure below 1 million, then the question wouldn't resolve on May 20th (unless we have reason to believe that the May 21st figure was inaccurate (e.g by comparing to other trackers).
  • If the number of confirmed cases never reaches 1 million this year, this question resolves as ambiguous.
  • If the aforementioned trackers are unavailable, compromised or otherwise deemed unreliable, this question shall resolve through whatever tracker(s) the community has adopted at that point in time.

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