60 forecasters

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

2%chance

2%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 2% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 18, 2025

Closes:

Oct 1, 2025

Resolved:

Oct 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 22, 2025

Artificial Intelligence

🏆 2025 Leaderboard

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