Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?
However, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their main source of energy. Specific structures proposed for this include Dyson spheres and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).
Some futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in less than a century, given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.
This question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?
This question will resolve positively to the year CE when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.
The resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.
This question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.
"Humanity" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.