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3
comments
52
forecasters
Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?
8%
chance
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Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (4)
Musk favors Republicans more than Democrats
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
ease of filing FEC Form 1
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
3 votes
Musk's history of bold, unrealized claims
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
3 votes
Difficulty for 3rd parties to get on ballots
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
Comments
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Resolution Criteria
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Authors:
johnnycaffeine
Opened:
Jul 7, 2025
Closes:
Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:
Jul 7, 2025
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