32 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

18 pp this week

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 14, 2025

How much are NATO member countries spending on defense?

FOX News•Sep 15, 2025

What is Nato? Romania and Poland both face Russian drone incursions in a week

Independent•Sep 15, 2025

Russian drones force Europe to defend itself, perhaps alone, after Putin ‘put down a marker’ to NATO

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

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