36 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

5 pp this week

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 14, 2025

NATO is not prepared for war

Al Jazeera•Oct 12, 2025

NATO weighs armed drones, loosening restrictions on shooting down Russian aircraft

New York Post•Oct 11, 2025

Russia Bombers Hit Training Targets Near NATO as Baltics Prepare for Attack

Newsweek•Oct 10, 2025

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