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Will most UK schools re-open for 2020-2021 academic year?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China.

A number of European nations, including Spain, France, Italy, and the UK, have announced that all schools are to be closed in an attempt to curb COVID-19 infections.

In the United Kingdom, the school year is divided into three terms. The Autumn Term, which is the first of the school year, runs from early September to late December.

This question asks whether the United Kingdom will reopen its schools in time for a "normal" start to the Autumn Term of the year 2020. The UK had over 3900 cases as of March 20, when an announcement was made that, in addition to schools, pubs, bars, clubs and restaurants would be closed. Schools are currently running in an extremely limited capacity to provide childcare for essential workers, and care for vulnerable children.

Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?

Question resolves positively if >50% of UK schools (including primary, secondary, and sixth-form colleges) are open for physical, in-person teaching for the majority of pupils, on the 7th of September 2020 (the first Monday).

Resolution is by credible news reports or by reports by UK government agencies. % of schools is taken here by number of schools, not by number of students.


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