Question

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

3

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction

5%

(2% - 5%)

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50%

community: 5%

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Authors:

Opened:

Aug 13, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

May 2, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2025

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

‘It’s missing something’: AGI, superintelligence and a race for the future

Guardian•Aug 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will we have transformative AI?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 13, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

May 2, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2025

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

‘It’s missing something’: AGI, superintelligence and a race for the future

Guardian•Aug 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will we have transformative AI?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?