51 forecasters

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

3%chance

2 pp this week

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 19, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 21, 2025

AI Pathways Tournament

The Tool AI Pathway

Artificial Intelligence

China is starting to talk about AI superintelligence, and some in the U.S. are taking notice

NBC•Oct 4, 2025

China Could Win AI Fight

Daily Caller•Oct 4, 2025

California bill regulating top AI companies signed into law

NBC•Sep 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch