Question

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

no comments0

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction

Make a Prediction

50%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Aug 19, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2028

AI Pathways Tournament

The Tool AI Pathway

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI Is Poised to Become the Most Valuable Startup Ever. Should It Be?

Wired•Aug 19, 2025

Why Love Must Guide Us Through the Age of Superintelligence

Psychology Today•Aug 19, 2025

Sam Altman says there was a big reason OpenAI released its open-weight models

Business Insider•Aug 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

46%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Aug 19, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2028

AI Pathways Tournament

The Tool AI Pathway

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI Is Poised to Become the Most Valuable Startup Ever. Should It Be?

Wired•Aug 19, 2025

Why Love Must Guide Us Through the Age of Superintelligence

Psychology Today•Aug 19, 2025

Sam Altman says there was a big reason OpenAI released its open-weight models

Business Insider•Aug 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

46%