15
105 forecasters
Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?
21%chance
Top Key Factors
Continuing focus on "affordability" leads to consideration of UBI
Increases Likelihood
AI-induced job losses drive UBI consideration
Increases Likelihood
UBi will scale before 2030
Increases Likelihood
Past UBI trials show mental health benefits
Increases Likelihood
Trials are usually very small scale
Decreases Likelihood
Pensioners' political power hinders UBI changes
Increases Likelihood
Disappointing results of previous UBI schemes
Decreases Likelihood
G7 political shift to right-wing affects UBI support
Decreases Likelihood
Post-pandemic inflation dampens UBI enthusiasm
Decreases Likelihood
UBI is often seen as another way for the left to give money to its electorate
Decreases Likelihood
Economic concerns require cuts to fund UBI programs
Increases Likelihood