64 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?

22%chance

22%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 22% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 21, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolved:

Oct 14, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 25, 2025

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Brazil’s Bolsonaro was convicted but the military appetite for a coup lingers

Guardian•Oct 9, 2025

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