221
357 forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
ResolvedYes
Presence of aircraft carrier group in region
Increases Likelihood
US in "armed conflict" with narcotrafic and preparing options for strikes
Increases Likelihood
Military presence increase
Increases Likelihood
Signs of possible US military action.
Increases Likelihood
Immediate prediction change if tensions ease.
Decreases Likelihood
Increasing tensions with military movements
Increases Likelihood
F-35 jets near Venezuelan borders
Increases Likelihood
Authorized CIA to carry out operations
Increases Likelihood
USS Gerald Ford moves closer to Venezuela
Increases Likelihood
US B-1B bombers near Venezuela
Increases Likelihood
US interests in Latin American resources
Decreases Likelihood
Oil deals influence US actions towards Venezuela
Decreases Likelihood
Does Trump think he can use the situation for personal benefit like winning Nobel Peace Prize
Increases Likelihood
US assertiveness in own hemisphere
Increases Likelihood
Good relation between opposition leader and Trump
Increases Likelihood
Venezuela training civilians for conflict
Increases Likelihood
Chinese arms shipped to Venezuela
Increases Likelihood
Opposition leader confident in support
Increases Likelihood
Only 1 strike against drug boat since September 2nd
Decreases Likelihood
Lindsey Graham comments on land strikes
Increases Likelihood
Manifold odds suggest 34% probability.
Increases Likelihood
The Sept. 8th strike took place on international waters
Decreases Likelihood
Focus on counter-narcotics interdiction in International Waters
Decreases Likelihood
China-Venezuela ties affecting US stance
Increases Likelihood