281 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

40%chance

10 pp this week

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 1, 2025

Closes:

Dec 1, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 4, 2025

Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

Current Events⚡

🏆 2025 Leaderboard

The Guardian view on the US and Venezuela: Trump’s ‘war on drugs’ ramps up military threats to Maduro | Editorial

Guardian•Oct 16, 2025

Trump acknowledges covert action in Venezuela, eyes possible military strikes

MSNBC•Oct 16, 2025

President Trump Unleashes the CIA on Venezuela and Signals Ground Operations Are Very Likely

Red State•Oct 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?