74 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?"?

36.5%chance

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 37% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 1, 2025

Closes:

Sep 1, 2025

Resolved:

Sep 12, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 1, 2025

Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted

Include Bots:Yes