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111 forecasters
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
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Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?
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98 forecasters
Election result blocked by US court due to foreign interference in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
3%
2027-2028
5%
0 comments
92 forecasters
State not submitting electoral votes to Congress on time in these elections?
2021-2022
Annulled
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
Annulled
2027-2028
5%
0 comments
112 forecasters
US court block election result because of fraud in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
7%
2027-2028
15%
0 comments
29 forecasters
US Congress limits presidential war powers before Jan 3, 2029?
Democratic Congress
54%
Republican Congress
10%
Split Congress
22%
0 comments
84 forecasters
Will SCOTUS weaken donor disclosure rules for political spending in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
20%
2027-2028
33%
3 comments
89 forecasters
District population deviation of ≥12% in >5 states?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
10%
2027-2028
15%
0 comments
85 forecasters
Any US state having no anti-SLAPP law?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
8%
2027-2028
16%
2 comments
93 forecasters
US House maps show a ≥20 seat party advantage in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
20%
2027-2028
25%