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2
121
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121 forecasters
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
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Will the U.S. government seek to revoke a naturalized citizen's citizenship for post-naturalization conduct in the following years?
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15 comments
130 forecasters
US-born children of non-citizens not recognized for 90 days in these years?
2021-2022
result:
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2023-2024
result:
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2025-2026
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2027-2028
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117 forecasters
Will the US transfer a citizen to a prison abroad in the following years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
20%
2027-2028
32%
0 comments
126 forecasters
Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?
0.1%
chance
2 comments
97 forecasters
US executive in contempt for not obeying a court ruling in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
result:
Yes
2027-2028
70%
0 comments
105 forecasters
Habeas corpus suspended for any group in the US in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
9%
2027-2028
10%
2 comments
110 forecasters
DOJ files charges against journalist under Espionage Act in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
21%
2027-2028
29%
4 comments
106 forecasters
Will the US executive order non-enforcement of court orders in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
30%
2027-2028
51%
2 comments
103 forecasters
Will DOJ leaders deviate to prosecute a presidential opponent in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
58%
2027-2028
71%