47 forecasters

Will senior DOJ leaders override normal procedures to protect the President, his family, or his allies from a legal case in the following years?

2021-2022result: No

2023-2024result: No

2025-202690%

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2025-2026

2027-2028

2023-2024

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Sep 4, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2029

U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Politics

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will senior DOJ leaders override normal procedures to open or accelerate a case against a high-profile presidential opponent or critic in the following years?

In the following years, will the DOJ decline to act on a criminal contempt referral of a current or former executive official who served under the sitting president?

Will the Department of Justice indict a high-profile individual from the opposing party to the U.S. president in the following years?