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105 forecasters

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105 forecasters

U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

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3 comments168 forecasters

Will the Trump administration announce a suspension of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029?

1 comment117 forecasters

Will the US transfer a citizen to a prison abroad in the following years?

2021-2022result: No

2023-2024result: No

2 comments97 forecasters

US executive in contempt for not obeying a court ruling in these years?

2021-2022result: No

2023-2024result: No

2025-2026result: Yes

15 comments130 forecasters

US-born children of non-citizens not recognized for 90 days in these years?

2021-2022result: No

2023-2024result: No

3 comments122 forecasters

US president to invoke the Insurrection Act in these years?

2021-2022result: No

2023-2024result: No

2 comments121 forecasters

Will the US seek to revoke a naturalized citizen's citizenship in these years?

2021-2022result: No

2023-2024result: No

2025-2026result: Yes

4 comments106 forecasters

Will the US executive order non-enforcement of court orders in these years?

2021-2022result: No

2023-2024result: No

2 comments91 forecasters

≥10 US president-affiliated people to get a pardon/commutation in these years?

2021-2022result: No

2023-2024result: Yes

2025-2026result: Yes