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93
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93 forecasters
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
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Will no debates be held between the actual or presumptive presidential nominees of the two major parties in the following US elections?
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93 forecasters
≥3 Senate or governor races hold no debates in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
19%
2027-2028
20%
0 comments
103 forecasters
Losing US presidential candidate not conceding in these elections?
2021-2022
Annulled
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
Annulled
2027-2028
40%
0 comments
93 forecasters
2 US governor/Senator candidates not conceding in these elections?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
16%
2027-2028
25%
0 comments
92 forecasters
State not submitting electoral votes to Congress on time in these elections?
2021-2022
Annulled
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
Annulled
2027-2028
5%
0 comments
94 forecasters
Nominee blocked from US statewide office ballot by opposition in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
5%
2027-2028
10%
2 comments
93 forecasters
Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
4%
2027-2028
13%
0 comments
87 forecasters
US military leader campaign/accept a civilian executive position in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
7.5%
2027-2028
12.5%
5 comments
25 forecasters
US States Won by Non-Major Parties in 2028
1%
chance