formulating calibrated contingencies delivering critical insights assembling predictive wisdom computing intelligent insights assembling accurate insights mapping the future generating probable insights exploring critical forecasts crowdsourcing probable estimations predicting intelligent futures formulating precise estimations calculating probable insights formulating calibrated forecasts formulating contingent insights

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

In February 2020, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns of economic activity, it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will rise substantially in 2020, perhaps dramatically so.

In late March, the US saw its worst initial jobless claims number ever, with over 3.28 million people losing their jobs in a single week. This was more than quadruple the previous record high, and 30 standard deviations above the mean. Estimates by the US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis suggest that the US unemployment rate could exceed 32% - this would be profoundly bad, approximately treble the highest unemployment rate in recent history in the US, 10.8% reached in 1982.

This question asks: For the calendar year 2020, what will be the highest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?

Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.