Question

Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017?

Resolved:No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction

22%

(15% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 22%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

46.1

Community Peer Score

17.3

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Dec 13, 2016

Closes:

Nov 15, 2017

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 15, 2016

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2017 Leaderboard

Over a million people now have access to the gen-AI powered Alexa+

•Jun 23, 2025

Over a million people now have access to the gen-AI powered Alexa+

TechCrunch•Jun 23, 2025

Over a million people now have access to the gen-AI powered Alexa+

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

17.8%

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

37%

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

04 Mar 2029

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Dec 13, 2016

Closes:

Nov 15, 2017

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 15, 2016

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2017 Leaderboard

Over a million people now have access to the gen-AI powered Alexa+

•Jun 23, 2025

Over a million people now have access to the gen-AI powered Alexa+

TechCrunch•Jun 23, 2025

Over a million people now have access to the gen-AI powered Alexa+

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

17.8%

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

37%

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

04 Mar 2029