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82 forecasters

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82 forecasters

AI Demonstrations

Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017?

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42 comments78 forecasters

AI successfully making $1 million in retail

70 comments179 forecasters

Date when AI Passes Difficult Turing Test

Current estimate

3 comments72 forecasters

AI Blackmail for Material Gain by EOY 2028

111 comments530 forecasters

Longbets Turing Test 2029

15 comments81 forecasters

2027 AI Bet winner between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?

Miles Brundage12%

1 comment68 forecasters

Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?

27 comments114 forecasters

By 2030, will general-purpose robot learning new tasks be >$20k?

10 comments4 forecasters

XPRIZE Healthspan Grand-Prize Award

$61 million – 10 Year Functional Improvement16.5%

$71 million – 15 Year Functional Improvement13%

$81 million – 20 Year Functional Improvement13%