24 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft75%

At least one person36%

At least one person—and return them to Earth20%

An uncrewed craft

At least one person

At least one person—and return them to Earth

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 2, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035