55
144 forecasters
Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?
ResolvedYes
US has shown that its preferred approach is either peso-buying or leveraging private institutions
Decreases Likelihood
Milei's election victory stabilises peso speculation
Decreases Likelihood
US pledge to bail out Argentina already made
Increases Likelihood
Utilising the swap line comes with costs that Argentina is reluctant to incur
Decreases Likelihood
Potential Trump backlash for Argentina support
Increases Likelihood
Risk to US taxpayers from currency interventions
Increases Likelihood
Show of support from Trump is possible
Increases Likelihood
Perception of US support reduces risk of further peso speculation
Decreases Likelihood
Election results
Increases Likelihood
US interventions to support Argentine Peso
Increases Likelihood
Argentina's soy exports to China causing tensions
Decreases Likelihood
Easy requirements for 'Yes' resolution
Increases Likelihood