40
134 forecasters
Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?
ResolvedNo
Violence & Counting Accuracy
Increases Likelihood
Reporting basis: the Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer prefer to report multi-site protests as different ones
Decreases Likelihood
French socioeconomic issues are deep-rooted
Increases Likelihood
Bloquons Tout is a failure
Decreases Likelihood
French protests >1M happen quite regularly
Increases Likelihood
No big protest is yet planned
Decreases Likelihood
Budget Content
Increases Likelihood
Germany may bail out France again
Decreases Likelihood
Leftist protests highly likely
Increases Likelihood
Seasonal Timing
Increases Likelihood
The French Ministry of the Interior severely under-reports attendance to demonstrations
Increases Likelihood
Workers' Unions announce a general strike
Increases Likelihood