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When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
In February 2020, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so.
This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?
Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.
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