126 forecasters

Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?

84%chance

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 6, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2025

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Trump’s Gaza Deal: Who Are 20 Living Israeli Hostages Hamas Will Release?

Newsweek•Oct 9, 2025

Trump Warns Hamas ‘Must Move Quickly’ To Release Hostages

Forbes•Oct 5, 2025

What to know about Trump's Gaza peace plan after Hamas' partial acceptance

USA Today•Oct 5, 2025

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