delivering intelligent insights composing accurate forecasts mapping precise understanding aggregating probable estimations composing intelligent insights mapping the future crowdsourcing contingent contingencies assembling definitive insights modeling quantitative understanding formulating critical futures crowdsourcing definitive futures formulating precise futures mapping predictive futures forecasting accurate wisdom

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?

In 2018, 1.1% of all House Democrats were defeated according to Ballotpedia

This question asks: What percent of House Democrats seeking another term will be defeated in the 2020 elections?

This question will be resolved according to the numbers published on Ballotpedia. If that resource is unavailable, Metaculus can choose a suitable replacement or resolve as ambiguous.

If elections are not held by the end of 2020, this question will be resolved as ambiguous.

This question has the following companion questions covering other congressional houses and parties:

What proportion of Senate Republican Incumbents Defeated in 2020

What proportion of House Republican Incumbents defeated in 2020

What proportion of Senate Democratic Incumbents Defeated in 2020

Categories: Elections – U.S. – congressional

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.