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38 comments
90 forecasters

When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?

community
11 Jun 2021
result
Ambiguous
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:Apr 12, 2020
Closes:Mar 1, 2021
Resolved:May 10, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 14, 2020
Artificial Intelligence
🏆 2016-2025 Leaderboard
Business Insider logo
Google CEO Sundar Pichai shares what it was like to be an AI leader and then get beaten to the market by OpenAI with ChatGPT
Business Insider•Oct 17, 2025
Verge logo
OpenAI’s AI datacenters in Abu Dhabi are actually being built.
Verge•Oct 16, 2025
USA Today logo
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says ChatGPT will soon allow 'erotica' for adult users
USA Today•Oct 16, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

1% chance
218

When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model?

>30 Dec 2025
(>30 Dec 2025 - >30 Dec 2025)
>30 Dec 2025
(>30 Dec 2025 - >30 Dec 2025)
21 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

High
20 Apr 2026
Critical
23 Apr 2027
1 forecaster
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