Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
3
19
forecasters
1
3 comments
19 forecasters
Technology
3 more...
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
Predict
Follow
share
embed
14.5%
chance
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (3)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
8 comments
19 forecasters
>10,000 GPU cluster in Russia by 2027?
10%
chance
3 comments
9 forecasters
Russian theft of frontier AI weights by 2030?
49.9%
chance
12 comments
175 forecasters
AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?
98%
chance
22 comments
30 forecasters
General AI solves International Math Olympiad
Current estimate
08 Aug 2026
12 comments
19 forecasters
Chinese chips sold to Russia by 2030?
81%
chance
26 comments
739 forecasters
Top ARC-AGI-2 score in 2026?
Current estimate
92.9
4 comments
63 forecasters
Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?
75%
chance
0 comments
64 forecasters
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
Current estimate
16 Oct 2027