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19 forecasters

1

19 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

14.5%chance

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8 comments19 forecasters

>10,000 GPU cluster in Russia by 2027?

3 comments9 forecasters

Russian theft of frontier AI weights by 2030?

12 comments175 forecasters

AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?

22 comments30 forecasters

General AI solves International Math Olympiad

Current estimate

12 comments19 forecasters

Chinese chips sold to Russia by 2030?

26 comments739 forecasters

Top ARC-AGI-2 score in 2026?

Current estimate

4 comments63 forecasters

Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?

0 comments64 forecasters

When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?

Current estimate