48 comments
274 forecasters
Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?
95%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 7, 2020
Closes:Dec 30, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 9, 2020
When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?
26 Mar 2030
(17 May 2026 - Apr 2033)
26 Mar 2030
(17 May 2026 - Apr 2033)
16 forecasters
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.3% chance
434
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
34 forecasters